The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was largely ignored by the trade with the Russia Ukraine war in full view.  However, USDA did surprisingly acknowledge and make some minor adjustment to the balance sheet with the Black Sea export disruptions.

USDA lowered Ukraine exports by 4.0 million metric tons (mmt) 20.0 million, as the conflict in that country is expected to disrupt shipments from the Black Sea region. Russia exports were reduced 3.0 mmt to 32.0 million as vessel transportation is expected to be constrained by the conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions. Partly offsetting these reductions were increases for 2021/22 Australian and Indian exports, up 2.0 and 1.5 mmt respectively to 27.5 and 8.5 million.

John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says he wasn’t sure if USDA would even acknowledge the war in their figures.  “However world exports were still above expectations.”    World ending stocks were raised 3.3 million metric tons (mmt) to 281.5 mmt.  U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised by 5 million bushels (mb) to 653 mb.

USDA also made slight adjustments to corn exports, raising that figure for the United States and India but reducing projections for Ukraine.  Global ending stocks were pegged at 300.97 mmt which is down nearly 1.2 mmt from February.  The agency also lowered U.S. ending stocks 100 mb as a result, to 1.44 billion bushels (bb).  Heinberg says, “USDA raised U.S. corn exports by 75 mb to work in the lower Ukraine losses. “South American corn production was left unchanged for Brazil at 114 mmt and lowered just 1 mmt for Argentina to 53 mmt.

Soybean ending stocks were lowered by 40 mb to 285 mb with an increase in exports by the same amount.  Soybean exports are now projected at 2.09 billion with lower production for South America.  In fact, USDA lowered Brazil’s crop size by 7 mmt to 127 mmt and Argentina by 1.5 mmt to 43.5 mmt.  Meanwhile world ending stocks were lowered nearly 3 mmt to 89.95 mmt.