USDA’s much anticipated January report was a disappointment for farmers and the trade as they did not get the yield and production cuts they were expecting.

Corn yield was raised 1 bushel per acre from the December report to 168 bushel per acre, nearly 2 bushel above estimates. Harvested acres were lowered by only 300,000 acres from December to 81.5 million acres. That put production at 13.692 billion bushels which is up 31 million bushels from the last report, but was 198 million bushels above estimates. However, ending stocks were still lowered on the final report to 1.892 billion bushel as USDA raised feed use. Quarterly stocks were reported at 11.39 billion bushel.

Soybean yield was raised by .5 bushel per acre to 47.4 with a lowering of harvested acres by 600,000 acres to 75 million. That translated into a 3.558-billion-bushel production figure, with ending stocks at 475 million bushel, unchanged from December. Quarterly stocks were set at 3.25 billion bushel which is under last year.

The summary for U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings showed all winter wheat at 30.8 million acres, which is down from 31.2 million in the 2019-20 marketing year. Hard Red Winter Wheat acreage was 21.8 million of that total and down from 22.5 million acres last season. Soft Red Winter Wheat seedings were estimated at 5.64 million acres but up from 5.2 million in 2019-20 and above estimates. Wheat ending stocks on a domestic basis were lowered by 9 million bushel from last month to 965 million. Quarterly stocks were projected at 1.83 billion bushel.

World corn ending stocks were lowered for corn and wheat but increased on soybeans. USDA projects corn carryout at 297.8 million metric tons, soybeans stocks at 96.7 million metric tons and wheat at 288.1 million metric tons.

John Nelson with Producers Livestock in Sioux City, Iowa says after months of speculation about the reports, farmers were undoubtedly disappointed. Most farmers had expected yields to be lowered with the adverse season, but instead they were raised for both corn and soybeans. Harvested acres are also in question as Nelson says they were lowered by only 300,000 on corn and 600,000 on soybeans, “Which didn’t make sense considering the record number of prevented plant acres in the spring of 2019.” In the end, ending stocks were left unchanged on soybeans, but lowered for corn as Nelson says USDA lowered corn export demand, but increased feed usage which translated into a lower final carryout.