The June USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports were bullish for corn and soybeans, mixed for wheat. Corn planted acreage was at 92.7 million acres (ma) for 2021 which is up 2% or 1.87 million acres from last year. However, it was considered bullish as it was nearly 1 million below the trade estimate of 93.8 ma.
Corn stocks on June 1, 2021, totaled 4.11 (bb), down 18% from June 1, 2020. This is one of the lowest levels in at least seven years.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing of West Bend, Wisconsin says this really changes the outlook for the corn market. “If you take roughly 1 million acres off of the corn acreage expectation and use a 175 bushel per acre (bpa) yield average for the U.S. that is a tighter balance sheet by 175 mb. So, you could be looking at ending stocks at around the 1.1-billion-bushel mark which is bullish,” he says.
The soybean acreage number was also bullish with soybean planted area for 2021 estimated at 87.6 ma. While this is up 5% from last year, this figure was unchanged from the March intensions and nearly 1.4 ma below the average trade guess.
Quarterly stocks for soybeans were also below expectations at 767 mb and down 44% from June 1, 2020.
Doherty says soybeans had an even tighter balance sheet than corn coming into the reports and this season so there is even less room for error with new crop production. He says, “This just points out the recent pull back in soybean prices was just a correction in an overall bull market.”
All wheat planted area for 2021 is estimated at 46.7 million acres, up 5% from 2020 and above trade estimates. However, this represents the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2021 winter wheat planted area, at 33.7 ma, is up 11% from last year and up 2% from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 23.6 ma are Hard Red Winter, 6.59 ma are Soft Red Winter, and 3.50 ma are White Winter. Other spring wheat acres are estimated at 11.6 million, down 5% from 2020, but this figure was again above trade guesses. Of this total, about 10.8 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat.
Old crop wheat stocks were more friendly at 844 mb, down 18% from this time in 2020 and the lowest in six years.