USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains Summary was bullish for wheat, but bearish for the row crop sector. The most bearish number compared to expectations was the quarterly soybeans stocks at 256 million bushels (mb). While it was 51% below the same quarter last year, it was well above trade estimates of 174 (mb).

Ted Seifred with Zaner Ag Hedge in Chicago says, “This was a game changing report for soybeans.” He says much of the increase came from an 80.8 (mb) revision to old crop production, but it takes a lot of pressure off the market and means lower prices, unless China comes back in with big purchases like they did a year ago. “The other scary thing is USDA raised old crop yield by .8 bushels per acre and we know this year’s crop is better than last years crop,” he says.

All crop corn stocks in all positions on Sept. 1, 2021, came in at 1.24 billion bushels (bb), which was down 36% from 2020’s 1.36 (bb) figure. However, it was still above trade guesses of around 1.17 (bb). Seifred says on corn USDA actually lowered U.S. production for 2020 by 71 (mb), with decreases in exports offsetting that production. The export cut was tied to lost sales with export disruptions from Hurricane Ida. However, he says the report was not as bearish for corn as it was for beans.

Wheat stocks were bullish compared to last year and also below projections at 1.78 (bb). That compares to 2.16 (bb) last year or a 18% reduction. Plus, all wheat production was lowered to a 19 year low of 1.65 (bb) which was below the previous estimate of 1.697 (bb) and also under expectations. Winter wheat production was cut as well to 1.28 (bb), with Hard Red Winter wheat lowered to 749 (mb).

Spring wheat production also dropped to 331 (mb) as the agency estimate producers harvested only 10.2 million acres (ma), an abandonment rate of 11%. Acreage losses were highest in Montana, which was down 25%. South Dakota was down 18% and North Dakota down 5%.