Friday’s Hogs and Pigs Report came in mixed with near term supplies higher than expected, but expansion plans turned out to be somewhat smaller than anticipated. However, the numbers need to be put in the proper context. The inventory was 109-percent, kept for breeding at 101-percent and kept for marketing at 109-percent. David Miller, Director of Research and Commodity Services for the Iowa Farm Bureau says comparing these numbers to 2014 isn’t a fair comparison because the herd was down then due to PEDV.

Miller thinks much of the big supply was anticipated and is already priced into the futures.

And he says the farrowing intensions farther out were down 3 to 4-percent so hog numbers should decline going forward….that will help support prices. He’s optimistic about the Iowa Minnesota carcass prices the rest of 2015 and especially into 2016.

He says the two big unknowns in the market going forward are exports and the impact and possible resurgence of avian influenza.