The September World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates came in bearish for corn and soybeans, neutral for wheat. Corn yield was raised by 1.7 bushels per acre (bpa) from August to 176.3 bpa and harvested acres were also raised by 600,000 to 85.1 million acres (ma). That led to a production increase of 246 million bushel (mb) to 14.996 billion bushels (bb). USDA raised exports and feed and residual use by 75 (mb) each, so that put ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop to 1.408 (bb), which was up 166 (mb) from August.

For soybeans, yield was raised .6 (bpa) to 50.6 and harvest acres were lowered by 300,000 to 86.4 (ma). So that put production at 4.374 (bb), which was up 35 (mb) from last month. The higher production and beginning stocks were offset by a 35 (mb) increase in exports, so ending stocks were only up 30 (mb) from the last report to 185 (mb).

Corn had a bullish reaction to the report and Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis says the speculative community was so bearish coming into the report much of the news was already factored in. “December corn briefly dropped below $5.00 before finding strong end user buying and speculative short covering. The same was true for soybeans. So maybe this will bottom the market,” he says.

The U.S. acreage and yield for wheat were left unchanged but ending stocks were lowered by 12 (mb) from last month to 627 (mb) but down 27% from 2020 and the lowest in 8 years. Exports were unchanged at 875 (mb) but there are offsetting by-class changes. Hard Red Spring wheat stocks were lowered by 5 (mb) to 111 (mb) which is a 53% decrease from last year. Hard Red Winter wheat carryover was raised by just 1 (mb) to 347 (mb) from last month.