SIOUX FALLS BUSINESS LEADERS SAY REGION, STATE WILL WEATHER THE STORM OF UNCERTAINTY FROM TARIFFS
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (John Hult / South Dakota Searchlight) – The term of art is “insolated, but not isolated.”
That’s how Bob Mundt of the Sioux Falls Development Foundation describes his metro area’s position as it faces the unpredictable economic conditions driven by the tariffs imposed – and frequently un-imposed or adjusted from day to day – by President Donald Trump.
Trump has downplayed the impact of tariffs as speed bumps on the way to a stronger manufacturing sector. While rejecting claims that tariffs will hurt the economy as a whole during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” over the weekend, he did nod to economist consensus by saying that some goods, which he said Americans could go without, could cost more as a result.
The Sioux Falls metro area, Mundt said, has weathered economic storms in the past thanks to South Dakota’s “conservative nature.” During a panel discussion at the Sioux Falls Rotary Club this week, Mundt said the market’s twists and turns have spurred trepidation, but not panic.
“We tend to react very well to challenges, whether that’s tariffs or pandemics or anything else like that,” Mundt told the Rotarians who’d gathered at the Military Heritage Alliance.
About a quarter of South Dakota’s residents live in the Sioux Falls metro area, located in the lower portion of the state’s southeast quadrant, which is one of the most rapidly growing areas in the U.S.
Tyler Tordsen, head of the Sioux Metro Growth Alliance, also sounded a hopeful note on the region’s economic fortunes. He pointed to cities like Brandon, just east of Sioux Falls, as proof that expansion has not ceased in light of the topsy turvy economic signals.
“There’s a lot of dirt that’s moving” in that city, Tordsen said before rattling off a handful of building projects.
“I am hearing hesitation, a little bit, but really nothing that’s stopping any projects from moving forward,” Tordsen said.
On the retail level, “new entrepreneurs” are still looking for opportunities to expand, Tordsen said. He also said that pre-Trump challenges like workforce development, exacerbated by a dearth of child care options and affordable housing, remain. The unemployment rate in the metro area is 1.8%.
The region’s history has shown that those challenges aren’t dealbreakers either, he said.
“I remember questions of ‘there will be 1,000 jobs at Amazon, how are they ever going to fill those?’ and they did,” Tordsen said, referencing a distribution center opened in 2022.
An Amazon spokesperson told South Dakota Searchlight that it took around seven months to hire a full staff at the center.
On workforce, Mundt pointed to former Gov. Kristi Noem’s $9 million Freedom Works Here campaign as a net positive for the area, “whether you loved it or hated it.” Mundt’s organization reached out to about 10,000 of the 11,641 people who filled out a form expressing interest in relocating to South Dakota for work.
Mundt said the foundation pointed potential workers to job openings, but didn’t track what happened afterward due to privacy concerns. He can’t say for certain how many people moved to Sioux Falls for work, but said spikes in attention can help address the area’s skilled labor needs.
“Right now, it’s becoming a situation where we need people with specific skill sets,” Mundt said.
Dawn Dovre of the South Dakota Department of Labor told South Dakota Searchlight that 4,047 of the people who’d filled out those forms were later connected with job advisers who “offered personalized support, helping with job opportunities, relocation resources, and housing information.”
The state doesn’t have a firm number of relocations, either. But listings on the SDWORKS jobs website have dropped from 25,000 at the start of the campaign to 18,000 today, Dovre said, “reflecting increased workforce engagement and strong results from the campaign’s reach.”
Jodi Schwan is the owner of the marketing firm Align Content Studios and operator of the website SiouxFalls.Business. She told the Rotary crowd the city needs to “tell its story” as a place that can serve as a home base for industries like financial technology, biotech and agribusiness.
“Low-value manufacturing is not coming back to this country, no matter what is said out there,” Schwan said. “High-value manufacturing is where the future is. We need to be a location of choice for that.”
NEBRASKA FARM INCOME PROJECTED TO INCREASE 55% IN 2025
LINCOLN, NE (Nebraska Today) – Nebraska net farm income is forecast to increase 55% in 2025, to a record $9.42 billion, according to new projections from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and the University of Missouri.
It would be the highest nominal farm income level on record for the state and third highest after adjusting for inflation, according to the Spring 2025 Nebraska Farm Income Outlook. The report is a collaboration between the Center for Agricultural Profitability at Nebraska and the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center at Missouri.
Total farm receipts in Nebraska are projected to increase $731 million, to $33.37 billion, as higher cash receipts from livestock and crop insurance indemnities offset the decline in cash receipts from crops. But the major driver of farm income in 2025 is expected to be the $1.58 billion increase in direct government payments, which would account for 17% of the increase in the state’s net farm income.
The 55% increase in Nebraska net farm income largely exceeds the 30% increase in U.S. net farm income projected by the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute and U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
“Positive profit margins in livestock production and one-time government payments will support farm liquidity in calendar year 2025,” said Alejandro Plastina, director of the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center. “Managing liquidity smartly will be key to protect farm operations from headwinds in 2026.”
The report indicates that its projections do not fully account for the impact of tariff announcements or other market uncertainties, noting that even small proportional changes in cash receipts or production expenses can drastically change the net farm income outlook.
Brad Lubben, an agricultural policy specialist at Nebraska, said the report’s strong projections may seem at odds with producer concerns and uncertainty over production, market and policy developments.
“Crop economics and livestock economics seem to be going in different directions at the moment, with the cattle industry helping hold up the state’s farm income prospects,” he said. “But it’s one-time government assistance payments that dominate the current financial projections, even as the outlook for what is ahead with markets and policy may be more uncertain than ever.”
Other key findings from the report include:
Crop receipts are projected to fall 2% in calendar year 2025, despite an increase in production levels for corn and soybeans. Crop receipts could recover in 2026, seeing a potential 2% increase.
Corn receipts are projected $84 million lower in 2025 than in 2024.
Soybean receipts are projected to drop $86 million in 2025.
Wheat receipts are projected to decline 3% in 2025.
A projected 9% decline in hay acres would trigger an 11% increase in hay prices in 2025.
Nebraska’s cattle inventory is projected to continue declining in 2025. However, higher prices and stable marketing could boost cattle receipts by 2%. Hog receipts are projected to decline 1%, while broiler receipts are projected to trend upward by more than 10% annually in 2025-26.
Production expenses are projected to remain steady in 2025, at $27.22 billion, as the decline in feed, pesticides, interest and fuel expenses offset higher purchased livestock, fertilizer and rent expenses in 2025.
Net rents to landlords are projected to increase $81 million in 2025.
The Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center provides objective policy analysis and informs decision makers on issues affecting farm and rural finances. The center collaborates with several states to develop farm income projections with local expertise.
The next Nebraska Farm Income Outlook is expected to be published in the fall.
The full report and data tables, as well as a webinar recording covering the outlook, can be found on the Center for Agricultural Profitability’s website.
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN SOUTH DAKOTA DROPS, OVERALL NUMBERS REMAIN ON PAR
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) – According to the U.S. Travel Association, International visits to the United States are dropping, and South Dakota is not immune to that trend.
International visits to the US fell by 14% from March of 2024 to March of 2025.
State officials remain optimistic but if this trend continues, the state and the country are looking at quite an economic hit.
However, it’s not all bad news, so far domestic travel has been above par in the state of South Dakota, up 2% for bookings 60 days out and around par with bookings 30 days out, a sign of a continuing trend for tourism in the state.
“We were talking about it on the way down here, Tourism is over 5 billion dollars to our state’s economy, so we’ve been setting records for the last several,” Governor Larry Rhoden said.
But if international numbers remain consistent for the rest of 2025, that could lead to a drop in revenue of around $21 billion nationwide from 2024.
“We have to get this right in America, and I know we will, I know we will, but we just need these international visitors to know that they’re here and that they’re going to have an amazing time whether it be in South Dakota or in the United States.” Tourism Department Secretary Jim Hagen said.
Last year international visitors poured $81 million into South Dakota’s economy.
Hagen was very clear that international travel has to come through and he hopes to use the International Roundup that’s taking place in Rapid City this week to send a clear message to the international tour operators attending and their customers back home.
“Listen, despite politics, despite economic challenges…we want you to know that you’re our friends, we’re excited you’re here, we welcome you…when they’re ready to travel just know that we are going to treat them like family,” Hagen said.
Numbers for the start of travel season and Memorial Day Weekend will be first available around July, as there is a two-month lag for the state to put data together.
Hagen added that those tourism numbers are going to be particularly important heading into 2026, with the World Cup and America’s 250th celebration taking place.
