The July World Agriculture Outlook Supply and Demand Estimates were bullish for wheat but neutral for soybeans and slightly bearish for corn.

USDA lowered the 2021/22 U.S. wheat crop 152 million bushels (mb) to 1.746 billion bushels (bb). The all wheat yield was pegged at 45.8 bushels per acre (bpa), down 4.9 bushels from last month. Production was lowered for other spring wheat to 345 mb, with the Hard Red Spring Wheat at 305 mb due to the severe drought conditions in the Northern Plains. This was partially offset by a 34 mb increase in the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop to 805 mb. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were reduced 105 million bushels to 665 million and are the lowest since 2013/14. Old crop ending stocks were also lowered to 844 mb, down 8 million from June. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says with USDA confirming a smaller wheat crop than expected it may assume the leadership role in the complex.

The national corn yield was left unchanged from June at 179.5 bpa. However, production was raised 175 mb from June to 15.165 (bb) working in the higher acreage from the June 30 Acreage report. That resulted in a 75 mb increase in 2021/22 ending stocks to 1.432 bb. Old crop ending stocks were lowered by 25 mb to 1.082 bb.

Bennett says the market was leaning bearish coming into the report so some of the increase was already dialed in. He says the trade is anticipating the eastern corn belt yields will make up for losses in the western corn belt associated with drought. Bennett says he is still optimistic the $5.00 level will hold in the December corn futures.

Global corn ending stocks for 2021/22 were raised to 291.2 mmt which is up nearly 2 mmt from June. USDA did lower Brazil corn production 5.5 mmt to 93 mmt, but increased Argentina’s crop by 1.5 mmt to 48.5 mmt.

Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. USDA left their yield projection unchanged at 50.8 bpa and used the acreage of 87.6 ma in the June 30 Acreage report. New crop ending stocks were also left at the same level as June at 155 mb. However, Bennett isn’t sure if USDA will have to lower soybean yields going forward, it’s largely dependent on August rains. “I think it’s a tough call and USDA probably won’t make any changes in yield until September,” he says. Old crop ending stocks were also left static at 135 mb.

Global stocks for new crop soybeans were raised by nearly 2.0 mmt to 94.5 mmt. While old crop carryover was also raised by 3.5 mmt from June to 91.5 mmt.