The grain markets have been building in geopolitical risk premium with Russia invading eastern Ukraine. Ukraine is a leading global exporter of corn, wheat and sunflower oil and the invasion could impair exports if the shipping channels and ports are shut down. However, North Dakota State University Extension Crop Economist and Marketing Specialist Frayne Olson says so far grain shipments out of Ukraine and Russia are on schedule.
He says so far there hasn’t been much evidence of panic buying by global customers that has translated into corn or wheat export business for the United States.
Olson says the real key for the grain markets is how long the conflict lasts because the longer the duration the higher it could push prices, especially if it extends the winter wheat harvest in the Black Sea.
China also relies heavily on Ukraine for corn and Olson says if the conflict lingers the U.S. could eventually gain some China corn business.
