The COVID-19 pandemic has been a black swan event like few in history and it will have a long tail in terms of its economic impact on the country. Dr. Ernie Goss, Creighton University Economist says the effect is more muted in the region verses the coasts because of the dominance of the agricultural industry. However, it won’t be a V-shaped recovery.
Goss thinks the economic recovery will also be slower than in 2008. But fortunately, he doesn’t see a depression.
Goss says agriculture has not been immune to the pain, especially in the livestock sector. Before COVID he thought the recent trade agreements would help heal farms and ranches. Now, he predicts more farm bankruptcies, resulting in a structural change in agriculture.
He sees a recovery in farm prices by years end if trade and shipping resumes and as consumers return to regular buying and eating habits.
The American Farm Bureau estimates from January 14 to April 3, COVID-19 resulted in a 26 to 36 percent drop in dairy prices, 31 percent drop slide in hog futures and 25 percent drop in live cattle futures.
