Export disruptions in the Black Sea due to the Russia Ukraine conflict could last for a while and will eventually shift some business to the U.S. NDSU Extension Crop Economist and Marketing Specialist Frayne Olson says right now no product is moving out of Ukraine and very little out of Russia.
He says it’s hard to gauge the amount of damage to export facilities and just how long it would take them to get back online even if the war ended soon. But the uncertainty has end users scrambling, driving up grain prices.
In the meantime, Olson believes there will be shifting in the world export markets for products like corn, wheat, barley and even veg oil that will benefit the U.S.
After that the big questions will be how much grain Russia will be able to export with sanctions likely to continue for some time. Plus, how much of the 2022 crop can Ukrainian farmers safely get planted and will they even have the inputs to plant.
Olson says if the crop season is pushed back and Ukraine farmers are also unable to harvest or export the winter wheat crop in July it could mean substantially higher prices during the U.S. harvest.
