April WASDE Within Expectations on U.S. Balance Sheet, Global Corn and Wheat Adjusted
The April World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates were fairly benign on the domestic front, but globally did show a smaller supply of wheat and an increase in corn.
United States Ending stocks for old crop corn were unchanged by the agency at 1.44 billion bushels (bb) while world carryover was increased by 4.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 305.5 (mmt). Some of the increase came from a 2 mmt increase in Brazilian corn production to 116 mmt. However, there were also increases in Indonesia, Pakistan, and the EU.
U.S. wheat carryout was raised by 25 mb to 678 mb, but are still 20% lower than last year. Exports were lowered 15 million bushels to 785 million as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets. Exports would be the lowest since 2015/16. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 3.1 million tons to 278.4 million with India accounting for most of the reduction that is only partially offset by higher EU stocks. Global stocks are projected at a 5-year low.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 were lowered by 25 million bushels (mb) to 260 mb. USDA raised exports 25 million bushels to 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Seed use is raised in line with record soybean plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Brazilian production was lowered 2 mmt to 125 mmt and right in line with expectations. Argentina production was unchanged at 43.5 mmt from last month.
Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing in Luverne, Minnesota says the report numbers were a non-event. “The market quickly went back to trading weather and funds have stepped back in to buy after the big pullback in wheat and soybean prices last week after the reports.,” he says. Hoogendoorn says corn has been bought on every break and new crop corn is still trying to buy the acres lost on the Prospective Plantings Report.
