The COVID-19 pandemic has been a black swan event like none other in history and the recovery in the agricultural community could resemble the iconic Nike swoosh. That is the prediction from Virginia Tech Ag Economist Dr. David Kohl. He sees the event playing out in three stages with the globe currently experiencing the dirty bird, which is associated with shock, then followed by an angry bird phase.
Kohl says the final stage in the COVID-19 black swan event is the Phoenix stage. This is where he thinks agriculture will have the most positive recovery of any segment of the economy.
Some economists say the recovery in the U.S. economy will be either V-shaped or U-shaped. However, Kohl is predicting more of a Nike swoosh recovery, especially for the ag economy.
Kohl adds that the meat packing industry meltdown during the COVID-19 event has proven that agriculture, in particular that sectors, has become too consolidated.
